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Poker Strategy With Jonathan Little: I Am A Calling Station

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I recently played a fun hand in a $5,000 buy-in World Poker Tour event that illustrates a concept you must master if you want to succeed at tournament poker. With blinds at 600-1,200 with a 1,200 big blind ante, everyone folded to me in the hijack seat and I raised to 3,000 out of my 60,000 effective stack with 9Spade Suit 9Diamond Suit. The action folded around to a good, tight, aggressive player in the big blind who three-bet to 10,600.

At this point, I can either go all-in or call. Folding would be much too tight. 9-9 is a premium hand that can be played for a large number of big blinds. If you thought the three-bettor was particularly tight, folding would then become acceptable, but even then, it is nitty.

Calling is a reasonable option if you have a good idea as to how your opponent will play after the flop. If he will play straightforwardly, you can call, knowing that when he bets the flop, he will usually have a strong hand. If you know he will bet the flop with his entire range, you know to not fold too often. If you are unsure how he will play after the flop, it usually makes the most sense to go all-in. While this will result in you going broke whenever your opponent has an over pair or wins a flip, he will also ensure you do not make a postflop mistake while also forcing many hands with 50 percent equity (like A-J and K-10) to fold.

This time I decided to call. The flop came 10Diamond Suit 8Club Suit 3Club Suit and my opponent bet 7,200 into the 23,400 pot.

At this point, 9-9 is again simply too strong to fold. In general, when the preflop three-bettor makes a small flop continuation bet, you can be somewhat sure you are against your opponent’s entire range, which includes many strong preflop hands that you crush, such as A-K, as well as all the potential bluffs, like 7-6. You may also be against a hand like 8-7 or A-3 that is betting for value and protection. Knowing this, calling is usually the best play. The main problem with going all-in is that your opponent will fold most of his worse hands that you crush and will call with all his strong hands that crush you. Clearly that is not a great spot to be in.

I called. The turn was the 3Spade Suit and my opponent bet 21,300 into the 37,800 pot.

What a dicey spot! When the opponent keeps betting you can be quite certain that he either has top pair or a better made hand, a draw, or a total bluff. When you have a marginal made hand against a polarized range, it makes sense to either call or fold because again, if you raise, you will only get called when you are crushed. Situations like this are interesting because some players will bet the turn with only their strong hands, others will bet the turn with all their bluffs but will not continue bluffing on the river, while some will bluff on the turn and river. It is difficult to know what to do! However, if you are aware of your opponent’s tendencies, you can get well out of line to exploit them.

I called. The river was the 10Heart Suit. My opponent checked.

Given the opponent either has an overpair that will not fold to a bet or a junky hand, it does not make sense to bet because the hands that beat us will always call and the hands that we beat will always fold. While you should certainly not expect to win every time when you show down your 9-9, checking behind is by far the best play, especially since if you lose, you retain a manageable 25,900 stack.

I checked and won against my opponent’s 7-5 offsuit.

That was not what I was expecting to see. From time to time, even tight, aggressive players will get out of line. By not pushing all-in preflop or by raising postflop, I allowed my opponent to continue bluffing with a hand that was drawing dead. Sometimes poker is easy! ♠

Jonathan Little is a two-time WPT champion with more than $6 million in tournament winnings. Each week, he posts an educational blog and podcast at JonathanLittlePoker.com, where you can get a FREE poker training video that details five things you must master if you want to win at tournament poker. You can also sign up for his FREE Excelling at No Limit Hold’em webinars at HoldemBook.com/signup.

Patrik Antonius Making Headway into Emergent India Poker Scene

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Poker pro Patrik Antonius was among the celebrities invited to the 10th anniversary celebrations of Indian online poker and gaming company, Delta Corp Ltd.

Taking place on the Deltin Royale casino cruise ship in water off of Goa, the event featured a mixture of Bollywood performances and gaming action. Being India’s only listed poker and casino company, Delta Corp. invited some of the country’s top high stakes players for three days of revelry between Nov. 30 and Dec. 2.

Patrik Antonius Star Power

Topping the bill in terms of poker talent was Antonius. The long-time pro from Finland might be used to nosebleed games in Las Vegas and Macau, but he found there was no shortage of action on board the floating Indian casino.

For those in attendance, blackjack, baccarat, and local game teenpatti were on offer alongside a selection of poker tournaments. Hosted by the poker site Adda52, the games were a chance for people to see how online gaming has changed since Delta Corp launched its first games on Casino Royale back in 2008.

“I am very humbled to celebrate this moment with Delta Corp. I remember playing the first game hosted by Casino Royale back in 2008, and since then poker has aggressively been promoted by Delta Corp Ltd and is growing at a fast pace in the sub-continent,” said Delta Corp Head of Poker Manish Adnani.

Online Poker in India Advances

In hosting a lavish birthday celebration, the Indian poker and gaming company has shown once again that the local industry is growing. From a fledging market in the late noughties, India is now home to a host of homegrown and international poker brands.

As well as famous faces like cricketer Chris Gayle supporting Adda52, PokerStars entered the market April. More recently, at the tail-end of November, Hippo52 and PokerHigh announced a merger.

Describing the changing state of the industry, PokerHigh founder Mithun Rebello said that mergers and acquisitions will become more common as India’s online poker market evolves.

“Having been in the game from the early days, we’ve always believed that consolidation would be a natural next step for the industry in the years to come, and we saw this as a great opportunity to further cement our position in the market,” Rebello said.

Although poker in India is far from mature, it’s on its way to fulfilling the potential insiders have talked about for the best part of a decade. With a population of 1.3 billion and the seventh largest economy in terms of nominal GDP, India has the capacity to become one of the top gaming markets in the world.

With Patrik Antonius helping to shine more light on Delta Corp’s achievements and the industry as a whole, further growth in 2019 is almost inevitable.

Macau November GGR beats forecasts

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November was a fairly good month for casinos in Macau. Gross gaming revenue (GGR) increased by 8.5% year-on-year, reaching just under $3.10 billion. This is better than the 2.6% seen in the previous month, even though October was the best month in four years, with casinos reporting GGR of $3.39 billion. For all of 2018, GGR has risen by 13.7%.

Union Gaming analyst Grant Govertsen expects casino GGR to be a little more than 13% by the end of the year, with December coming in at a 7% increase to $3.0 billion. Part of the reason for any decline would be due to the fact that the month has one less Friday. Govertsen adds that GGR growth in the first quarter of next year should be around 3%, and that the combined growth for January and February will be more than 4%.

The analyst adds that GGR for all of next year will be in the “mid-single-digits.” He explains, “[It] is important to keep in mind that as VIP continues to shrink as a percentage of total GGR (now run-rating at ~45%), the traditional big holiday months like Jan/Feb and Oct will be less dramatic than in years past World Gaming Expo Monaco scheduled for next month postponed – for an entire year.”

Govertsen continues with his analysis, predicting that the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau (HKZM) Bridgewon’t have an impact on GGR. He asserts, “Importantly, and despite what we believe could be robust visitation datapoints, we do not believe the bridge has had a material impact on GGR. It will take many quarters, if not years, for the bridge to begin to have a material impact on Macau’s gaming industry and we continue to believe it will most likely be in the form of a more robust MICE market. With respect to our comment about datapoints, there has been a certain dynamic in the early days of operations that seems to have led to a fair number of mainland visitors entering Macau for the sole purpose of taking the bridge in order to get to Hong Kong. Put another way, they’re in Macau for only a matter of minutes before departing yet they will be counted within the visitation statistics. Setting that aside for a moment, our on-the-ground observations still suggest continued modest growth in mass market visitation.”

Any changes in forecasts and numbers could come from the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China. However, the current ceasefire between the two countries could help ease tensions in Asia, at least in the short term.

PokerStars Approved to Offer Online Poker in Pennsylvania

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It’s official. PokerStars has been granted permission to operate in Pennsylvania once the state’s poker sites go live, likely in 2019.

A date hasn’t yet been set for an online gambling launch in the Keystone State. Last year, lawmakers finally passed legislation to legalize internet casinos after coming close the previous couple of years.

But Pennsylvania residents are still waiting to play. Many anticipated a summer or fall launch, but the licensing process has taken longer than expected.

PokerStars in Pennsylvania

Currently, New Jersey is the only state PokerStars operates in. But the world’s largest and most popular online poker site might soon have a larger presence in the US.

And that’s good news for the online poker industry in America. However, some lawmakers in certain states have fought to keep the poker site out. That includes California, a state that won’t likely pass internet gambling legislation in the near future. Some politicians in the Golden State oppose approving a license for any poker site that operated in the US prior to Black Friday, which would eliminate PokerStars.

Pennsylvania lawmakers took a different stance. On Wednesday, the Keystone State approved a license for the online poker giant. The Stars Group, along with Mohegan Sun Pocono, were granted permission to launch gaming sites. No launch date has been set but many speculate early to mid 2019.

The new PA law requires that only land-based are eligible for iGaming licenses. But that won’t stop PokerStars because the poker site is partnering with Mount Airy Casino, which is located in Mt. Pocono.

The Stars Group also recently announced a partnership deal with Nevada-based Eldorado Resorts, which could bring the poker site to more states in the future.

Name Recognition

When PokerStars entered the struggling New Jersey online poker market in 2016, many expected it would lead to a revival. Some even felt the other poker sites in the state would take a hit given the new competition.

But that hasn’t been the case on either front. Not only is PokerStars failing to dominate the New Jersey market, the world’s largest poker site hasn’t done much, if anything, to help the state increase online poker revenue.

So, it’s tough to predict the impact PokerStars will have on Pennsylvania’s poker industry. In May, New Jersey, Delaware, and Nevada agreed to a WSOP.com player pool merger hoping to spike revenue for each state. Thus far, revenues have remained stagnant.

PokerStars has not been approved for a license in Nevada, which is nearing five years of offering legal online poker in a state previously dominated by their unregulated rival.

Online poker is a difficult industry to predict.

WSOP Circuit Harrah’s Cherokee Events in Full Swing

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The events of the 2018/2019 WSOP Circuitstop at the Harrah’s Cherokee in North Carolina have been in full swing for more than a week now.

Since November 22nd, the Harrah’s Cherokee casino has been home to the latest stop of the live poker series. A total of 13 gold ring events are included in the stop’s schedule, along with a Ladies Event and two Seniors Event, all worth $250. Some of them have already been brought to an end, with a crowned winner having emerged, and some of them are yet to begin, with the last event of the stop – the $400 NLHE Double Stack event – set to start on December 2nd with a $75,000 guarantee.

As always, the WSOP Circuit offers a great variety of events with different buy-ins and guaranteed prize pools. Undoubtedly, the Main Event is the most expected event included in the poker series’ schedule. The Main Event will kick off on November 30th with the first of its two starting flights, followed by another Day 1 on December 1st. Then, two more days will follow, on December 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

Players can enter the Main Event in return to a buy-in of $1,700 to try and win a share of the massive $1,000,000 guaranteed prize pool.

Eight Events Already Over at Harrah’s Cherokee

For now, eight events of the WSOP Circuit Harrah’s Cherokee stop are over, with seven gold rings having found their new owners.

The first event of the series stop in North Carolina – the $400 No-Limit Hold’em event was conquered by Elilton “Tom” Gouveia, who also grabbed the lion’s share of the $750,090 prizepool and took home a prize of $104,807. Then, another $400 NLHE event took place, with Keldon Smith emerging victorious, getting his first WSOP Circuit gold ring. Apart from that, Smith also scooped $36,403 of the event’s $169,290 prizepool.

November 26th saw another WSOP Circuit winner after Blake Whittington took down the $600 No-Limit Hold’em Big Blind Ante event and grabbed the winner’s title, a gold ring and a $46,000 cash portion of the overall prize pool of $209,090. Then, Event #4 ended on November 27th after Daniel Statman emerged victorious from a total of 539 entries. Statman won the NLHE 6-Handed event gold ring and the largest portion of the $177,870 prizepool.

One day later, the fifth event in the series ended, with Chris Trotter conquering the title and scooping a $22,256 portion of the $92,730 prizepool. Another gold ring went to James Burns who won the $400 NLHE 8-Handed event and took home a $43,260 portion.

Most recently, the $400 No-Limit Hold’em Monster Stack saw its winner crowned, with Martin Ryan grabbing a $70,226 first-place prize and a gold ring after emerging on top of a 1,166 player field.

Alex Greenblatt Wins First WPTDeepStacks Title

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Alex Greenblatt topped a field of 446 entries to win the Season 5 WPTDeepStacks Thunder Valley Main Event on Monday at Thunder Valley Casino Resort. The professional poker player earned his first WPTDeepStacks title, and $122,500 in first-place prize money, which included a $3,000 championship prize package. This is one of the biggest wins of Greenblatt’s poker career, and his career earnings now stand at $1,317,760.

“It’s great when you win a tournament, that’s the only time you’re happy after a tournament. I’m pretty happy, I play at Thunder Valley a lot. I haven’t actually cashed at Thunder Valley in 18 months. The last tournament I cashed here was a WPTDeepStacks where I finished in 10th. It’s great to win something here.” said Greenblatt after the win.

When he was asked about his strategy for the final table tonight, Greenblatt had this to say. “I was going to try and play small ball. I wasn’t going to try to do much bluffing, maybe one or two barrels and not try to make anyone fold top pair.”

“I guess I’m up on the year so I will try to finish strong. Now I’ve got this championship to try and go win, so that should be fun. It was great, the staff is lovely, they know what they’re doing, they run a good show. WPTDeepStacks is a great tour, good structures, this tournament was amazing,” said Greenblatt when he was asked about his plans to end the year and overall thoughts on the tournament to end the interview.

Season 5 WPTDeepStacks Thunder Valley Final Table Results

1st: Alex Greenblatt – $122,500*
2nd: James Brown – $83,600
3rd: Nick Wooderson – $53,700
4th: Kelly Douglas – $36,480
5th: Paul Chai – $28,000
6th: Warren Kashiwagi – $23,280
7th: Robert Angeleri – $19,505
8th: Mimi Luu – $15,730
9th: Walter Robertson – $11,950

*Includes a $3,000 WPTDS Championship Package

The final table moved fast from the beginning, with Walter Robertson hitting the rail in ninth place just a couple of minute into the day. Season 4 WPTDeepStacks Thunder Valley Spring Main Event champion Mimi Luu fell next in eighth place, and Robert Angeleri took seventh place a short time later.

Warren Kashiwagi then survived in a chop, but the next time he was not so lucky and busted in sixth place. Paul Chai then fell in fifth place, and Kelly Douglas exited in fourth place. The elimination of Nick Wooderson in third place then set up a heads-up final between Alex Greenblatt (7.11 million) and James Brown (6.27 million).

Greenblatt fell behind slightly after an hour of play, but then he scored a huge double up to take a gigantic chip lead. The final hand was played just a few minutes later. Brown was all in preflop for just over 600,000, and Greenblatt had him covered on the button. The two players then flipped over their cards.

Greenblatt: Kd5c
Brown: AhKc

Board: 7h5h3cJd9s

Brown was eliminated in second place, good for $83,600 thanks to his deep run in the tournament. Greenblatt won the hand, and the tournament to take home his first WPTDeepStacks title, $122,500 (which includes the $3,000 championship prize package), and the WPTDeepStacks trophy.

Congratulations to our new WPTDeepStacks champion – Alex Greenblatt!

That concludes our coverage from WPTDeepStacks Thunder Valley. Thanks to Thunder Valley Casino Resort for hosting another great stop on the tour.

Daniel Strelitz Leads Planet Hollywood Main Event Heading Into Final Day

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Only one day remains at the World Series of Poker Circuit Main Event at Planet Hollywood, and the starting field of 518 has been whittled down to 12. The chip leader heading into the final day is Daniel Strelitz.

The final 12 players will return tomorrow to determine a winner, who will take home $168,722 and earn a free seat into the 2019 WSOP Global Casino Championship.

Each of the remaining 12 players will earn at least $12,627.

Strelitz finished Day 2 with 2,325,000 in chips. He’s followed by Ryan Tosoc (2,165,000), and Brent Roberts (1,885,000). Roberts was the chip leader at the start of the day, and he stayed among the leaders throughout Day 2.

Tim Reilly is fifth in chips (1,430,000). He has a history of success here. At the last Circuit stop at Planet Hollywood, he finished in 26th place. Ryan Tosoc also cashed in that event, finishing in 50th. They’ve both already improved on their finishes from last season.

Barry Shulman is the only bracelet winner still alive. He’s looking to add his first Circuit ring to his trophy case. He has an uphill battle, though, as he enters the final day last in chips with 529,000.

Day 2 started with 105 players who advanced from Day 1A (Saturday) or Day 1B (Sunday). The bubble burst in the third level of the day when Bob Zeidman and Nicholas Pupillo were eliminated simultaneously.

Players who finished in the money include Ben Palmer, who finished runner up in the Main Event at the last Circuit stop here. He finished in 19th place ($7,181) this time around. Also finishing in the money were Ben Keeline (52nd), Matt Affleck (46th), Peter Hengsakul (38th), Michael Del Vecchio (37th), Ankush Mandavia (34th), Dylan Wilkerson (28th), Dan O’Brien (21st), and Jesse Yaginuma (18th).

Those who were eliminated short of the money include Bryan Piccioli, Scott Stewart, Ryan Laplante, and Joshua Turner.

Day 3 begins Tuesday at 1:00 p.m., and play will continue until a new Circuit Main Event champion has been crowned.

Click here for results for far, or here for live updates from the event.

Here are the chip counts heading into Day 3:
1 – Daniel Strelitz – 2,325,000
2 – Ryan Tosoc – 2,165,000
3 – Brent Roberts – 1,885,000
4 – Jordan Meltzer – 1,755,000
5 – Tim Reilly – 1,430,000
6 – Scott Weiss – 1,255,000
7 – Travis Dorsey – 1,070,000
8 – Jared Griener – 945,000
9 – Jody Fayant – 770,000
10 – Rafael Lebron – 770,000
11 – Zinan Xu – 685,000
12 – Barry Shulman – 529,000

Virginia Lawmakers Draft Sports Betting Bill

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Virginia is the latest state to throw their hat into the sports betting ring, with lawmakers drafting legislation that gives oversight of any betting action to the state lottery. House Bill 1638 would also legalize online sales of lottery tickets in the state.

The bill would grant the lottery the right to award five sports betting licenses at an initial cost of $250,000 each, with $200,000 renewal fees. Virginia doesn’t have any casinos, although parimutuel wagering on horse racing is permitted at licensed satellite facilities.

Revenue would be taxed at a low rate of 15 percent, with 2.5 percent earmarked for the lottery as an administration fee. A study by Oxford Economics suggests that the state could see a betting handle as high as $5.2 billion, with approximately $380 million in revenue.

A market that size would result in a more-than $50 million tax payout to the state, which would mostly be used to fund research projects at state universities. A second bill, however, aims to distribute those funds to community college programs instead. Virginia will open the legislative session in January, where any bills submitted will be sent to a committee for review.

West Virginia became the fifth state to legalize and regulate sports betting, and other neighboring states such as Maryland, Tennessee, and Kentucky are considering the move as well. Americans bet about $150 billion each year on sports, mostly on the black market, according to the American Gaming Association.

Atlantic City casino profits tumble after new venues launch

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Atlantic City casinos posted double-digit profit declines in the third quarter of 2018, as the market’s two new gaming venues cut into the other seven’s bottom lines.

Figures released Friday by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE) show Atlantic City’s nine casinos generated net revenue of $920m in the three months ending September 30, a 17.8% rise over the same period last year. For the year-to-date, revenue is up 6.4% to $2.2b.

However, the gross operating profit of these nine venues totaled $213.7m in Q3, a 15.3% year-on-year decline. The figure is only slightly better on the year-to-date front, in which profits fell 9.3% to $508.7m.

The late-June openings of two new AC venues – Hard Rock Atlantic City and the Ocean Resort Casino– clearly impacted the Q3 figures, as the two properties generated combined revenue of $178.5m. Their profits were miniscule — $8.2m for Hard Rock and $1.4m for ORC – as startup costs will have kept a lid on black ink.

Of the ‘original’ seven properties, none of them posted revenue gains in Q3, while only two reported increased profits. The Golden Nugget’s profits were up 6.6% to $13.6m, although this was at least partially due to the property’s market-leading online casino operation. The other profit gainer, Bally’s, barely qualified for that designation, rising only 0.5% to $18.4m.

In percentage terms, the Tropicana suffered the biggest profit decline, falling 31.1% to $31.8m, while the market-leading Borgata was down 21.7% to $63.2m.

Even the online-only operations of Caesars Interactive Entertainment New Jersey and Resorts Digitalwere in negative profit territory in Q3. Actually, seriously negative, as CIENJ’s revenue fell 10.5% while profit tumbled 69.4%. Resorts Digital fared even worse, with revenue down 51.4% and profit sliding 83.3%, even as the state’s overall online market continued to post solid numbers during the period.

The numbers are a far cry from Q3 2017’s results, which saw profit shoot up 17.6% despite a modest revenue dip, and that dip was due to the soon-to-be-closed Trump Taj Mahal reducing its operations as its closing date drew nearer.

At the time, the fact that AC’s market had seen five casinos close in rapid succession was described as the market’s ‘right-sizing,’ although that narrative suffered a hiccup when Q1 2018’s profits fell 11.7%. However, Q1 saw the region suffer a string of winter storms that kept customers at home, a phenomenon that clearly wasn’t at play in Q3. Moreover, Q2’s profit decline was a more modest 4.6%.

While the market’s hotel occupancy over the first nine months of 2018 was down 5.1 points to 84.1%, at least part of the profit decline is likely due to all operators having to step up their marketing game in the wake of shiny new competition.

The question that hung over the launch of AC’s new properties was whether they could grow the overall financial pie or just nibble away at the seven ‘original’ properties’ slices. Revenue is clearly growing, although some of that growth is goosed by the state’s new legal sports betting options, and it remains to be seen whether the market as a whole will continue to suffer from having two extra mouths to feed.

Gambler Sues Bookmaker Betfred for Voiding His $2.19 Million Jackpot

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A gambler in Lincolnshire, England, has filed a lawsuit against the British bookmaker Betfred after the company said that his win of a £1.7 million jackpot was a result of a software malfunction and decided to void it. Thinking that he was a millionaire after hitting the jackpot online, the man spent £2,500 celebrating the win with his family and friends only to learn a few days later that it was all a “glitch”.

Andrew Green, a 52-year-old gambler from North Hykeham in Lincolnshire, won the mouth-watering jackpot while playing the popular Frankie Dettori’s Magic Seven game on the Betfred website in January. He played the blackjack version of the game which featured a progressive jackpot of £1.7 million (approximately US$2.19 million). Five days after taking his family to a local pub to celebrate the win, however, Mr. Green was contacted by the betting company and heard the unpleasant news that his winnings were void.

According to Betfred, his win took place as a result of a software malfunction and, therefore, was not legitimate. The gambler, however, had extended his bank overdraft in order to pay around £2,500 for the celebratory drinks, the Daily Mail reported on Thursday. He was less than happy with the betting firm’s explanation that a computer glitch had occurred while he was playing so Betfred offered him £60,000.

Green turned down the settlement, according to which he had to sign a nondisclosure agreement in order to receive the compensation. He is now taking his case to High Court and expecting the company to honor the bet. His legal representative Peter Coyle explains that Betfred has not provided evidence of the error. The gambler believes, however, that even if it was a glitch, he could not have known about it and should not be held responsible. The preliminary hearing was held this Monday.

Software Malfunction Often Blamed for Companies’ Refusal to Pay

This is not the first time a gambling site refuses to pay out a huge win or a jackpot, blaming it on a glitch in the software of the game. Bookmakers have also voided bettors wins, saying that there has been a malfunction in the live-betting system.

In July 2017, Bet365 said that Megan McCann’s £1 million win was not legitimate and did not pay her. The student from Belfast wagered quite successfully £13 on accumulated bets involving horse racing but according to the sportsbook, these bets were placed by a third party. She did not place just one bet but nearly £25,000, which the company decided to keep. McCann took the bookmaker to court but the case will not be heard until next year.

Earlier this year, the FanDuel sportsbook in New Jersey refused to pay out $82,000 to a bettor, saying that the 750-1 odds displayed was a mistake. According to the firm, a glitch occurred in the pricing system and continued for a short time, but it was long enough for the gambler, Anthony Prince of Newark, to place his $110 bet. As a result, his winnings were not considered legitimate and were void.

Following a vast media coverage and an outrage from the gambling community, however, FanDuel decided to give Anthony Prince his winnings even if they were caused by a mistake in the software. In an official statement in September, the company explained that sports betting was “supposed to be fun”. These glitches, even if rare, were possible, FanDuel continued, adding that they would honor the win after all.

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