How to Tell Your Opponent Have a Flush or not?


How to Tell Your Opponent Have a Flush

One of the frequent puzzles you have to solve when playing no-limit hold’em is the situation in which you have either top pair on the flop or an overpair to the board, but by the end of the hand you have to figure out whether your opponent made a flush.

If I could do this correctly every single time, I’d be rich. I’m not rich, so you can be sure I don’t have a 100% accurate formula worked out. But there’s a tell involved in this situation that arises frequently enough that it’s well worth knowing about.

A couple of years ago, I was playing my usual game, $1/$2 no-limit hold’em, at what was then the Imperial Palace in Las Vegas, now renamed The Quad. Early in the session, I was in the small blind with {9-}{8-}-offsuit, and after one player made a small raise and another called, I decided to call as well. (If you want to question the wisdom of that call, I won’t fault you, though it worked out well this time.) The flop was a delightful {K-}{8-}{8-}, with two hearts.

I decided to fast-play this situation, and made a lead-out bet. The original raiser folded, then the other player called. His most likely hands were a {K-}, an {8-}, or a flush draw.

The turn was a third heart. Before I acted, I noticed that he rechecked his hole cards. A-ha! That strongly suggested that he did not have a flush draw that had just come in.

Why do I say this? Here’s why.

Most recreational players don’t memorize the suits of their cards. They retain a visual memory that they have either two red cards, two black cards, or one red and one black, but they don’t know the suits with any confidence.

If he’d had two red cards, he would have rechecked them on the flop to see if he had a flush draw before deciding whether to call. But he didn’t. He only rechecked them on the turn, suggesting that he had one red card and one black card. He was checking to see if he now had a backdoor flush draw that he might make on the river.

After he called my flop bet, I was planning to check if a heart came on fourth street, thinking that the draw was his most likely hand, but when I saw him check his cards again when the third heart came, that changed my mind. I bet and he folded.

I think he probably had a black king and a smaller red card. Most likely, he discovered that his red card was a diamond, or it was a heart but too small for him to have confidence that his flush would be the winner even if the river brought a fourth heart. Source: